According to the commodity market analysis system, the toluene market continued to decline from October 14 to 21, 2024. The benchmark price of toluene on October 21 fell 5.65% from the benchmark price of toluene on October 14. This cycle coincides with the National Day holiday. During the holiday, the foreign market continued to rise. The toluene market rebounded after the holiday. The ex-factory prices of the main refineries rose overall, but the downstream has always been insufficient to follow up and lacked demand support. The toluene market rose weakly. After the holiday, there were more arrivals at the port market and the market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market fell after rising. The overall trading in the spot market was sluggish, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong.
Cost side: The recent trend of crude oil prices has fallen. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is controllable. In addition, the future demand for crude oil market is worrying. As a result, the oil market continues to decline. However, US crude oil inventories have declined recently, which still supports the crude oil market. Overall, the crude oil market price has fallen slightly.
Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation situation: Currently the company’s operations are normal, the unit’s production is stable, most of the products are for self-use, and production and sales are stable.
Demand side: Paraxylene prices continue to fall, toluene demand support is weak
On October 21, Sinopec Sales Company lowered the price of paraxylene by 200 yuan/ton compared with the price on October 14. The price of PX in the domestic and foreign markets continued to decline. As of October 18, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market rose by US$10/ton.
PX price trend chart:
Market Forecast: The recent toluene market is less affected by crude oil, and is mainly affected by supply and demand. The recent market supply has increased significantly, and refineries have actively reduced prices for accumulated inventory. In terms of demand, downstream companies basically maintain on-demand purchases. In some regions, gasoline demand is good, but overall, demand is still supported. It is expected that the toluene market will be stable in the short term, with small fluctuations during the week.
Post time: Oct-22-2024