From December 9 to 13 (as of 15:00), the average price of domestic methanol market in East China ports increased by 2.77% during the period, up 4.63% from the previous month and 7.40% from the previous year. The domestic methanol market is mainly rising. Due to the changes in the main regional equipment in the Middle East, the import volume of methanol is expected to decrease, and the methanol inventory at the port is gradually entering the destocking channel, and the market is dominated by a bullish mentality.
Methanol current period comparison chart:
On the cost side, the thermal coal market has been weak recently. At present, most coal mines in the production area maintain normal production, mainly implementing long-term contract shipments, and the overall coal supply level is stable. As the price of Beigang continues to fall, market pessimism spreads, and the production area lacks the driving force to pull. At this stage, the overall market supply exceeds demand, the terminal purchasing willingness is low, and the coal price is not supported enough. The cost side of methanol is affected by negative factors.
Coal/thermal coal (upstream raw materials)-methanol price trend comparison chart:
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: the demand for acetic acid methanol may increase; downstream chloride: Guangxi Jinyi’s unit is running at reduced load, and Jiangsu’s mainstream factory units have recovery plans, and the demand for chloride has increased; downstream MTBE: Huayi and Shengtong’s production has been affected after the start of production, and the demand for MTBE has increased; downstream dimethyl ether: a dimethyl ether unit is expected to be shut down, and the demand for methanol has decreased; downstream formaldehyde: there is no plan to shut down the formaldehyde unit, and the demand fluctuation is not large. Most downstream demand for methanol has increased, and the demand for methanol is affected by favorable factors.
Methanol-acetic acid (downstream products) price trend comparison chart:
Methanol-MTBE (downstream products) price trend comparison chart:
On the supply side, the Shenmu plant in Shaanxi was under maintenance; the plants of Donghua, Humeng Energy, Guangju New Materials, and Junzheng in Inner Mongolia were reduced; the plants of Jiuding, Xinjiang Xinye, Shenmu in Shaanxi, and Changyi in Ningxia were restored; the overall recovery volume was greater than the loss volume, and the capacity utilization rate increased. The supply side of methanol was affected by negative factors.
On the foreign market, as of the close of December 12, the closing price of the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 346.00-347.00 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 124.00-125.00 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; the closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 433.00-434.00 euros/ton, down 5 euros/ton.
Forecast for the future market, factory supply may decline, and enterprises mainly hold prices for shipments under low inventory; on the port side, the mentality is relatively strong due to the changes in the main regional plants in the Middle East, and inventory may continue to be reduced. Downstream demand maintains incremental expectations. The domestic methanol spot market mainly fluctuates within a range.
Post time: Dec-16-2024