From February 5 to 14 (as of 15:00), the average price of domestic methanol market in East China ports rose first and then fell, with a price drop of 2.83% during the period, a month-on-month drop of 5.84%, and a year-on-year drop of 2.34%. The domestic methanol market rose and then fell. The inventory of methanol enterprises showed a destocking trend overall, but affected by shipping capacity, the inventory of enterprises in some regions rose slightly. In addition, the traditional downstream is still in the recovery stage, and there is a certain resistance to high prices.
Methanol current period comparison chart:
On the cost side, the current thermal coal market supply is gradually increasing, prices are stable and falling, port inventories are accumulating at high levels, and downstream demand growth is weak. In the future, the thermal coal market will still face great downward pressure. Methanol costs are affected by negative factors.
On the demand side, downstream acetic acid: Xihuayi is shut down for maintenance, Hubei Hualu is expected to shut down, and the demand for acetic acid has decreased; downstream formaldehyde: Liuyang Jinggang, Lankao Huitong, Binzhou Hengyun, Shandong Zhongda have plans to start up their units, and the demand for formaldehyde has increased significantly; downstream MTBE: Shandong Yuhuang has started production, and the demand for MTBE has increased; downstream dimethyl ether: Chongqing Wanlilai and Dezhou Shengdeyuan have plans to start up their units, and the demand for dimethyl ether has increased. Downstream chloride: Some chloride units are expected to resume, but under the condition of Ningbo Juhua’s load reduction, the demand has not changed much; the impact on methanol demand is mixed.
Methanol-acetic acid (downstream products) price trend comparison chart:
Methanol-MTBE (downstream products) price trend comparison chart:
On the supply side, the Ordos chlor-alkali chemical plant was under maintenance; the Xintai Zhengda and Jiutai New Materials plants were restored. The overall loss was greater than the recovery, and the capacity utilization rate declined. The methanol supply side was affected by favorable factors.
In the future market forecast, the traditional downstream production will continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the fluctuation of freight rates and the downstream stocking situation. The domestic methanol spot market mainly fluctuated within a narrow range.
Post time: Feb-17-2025