According to analysis, from June 10 to 17, the domestic ethanol price rose by 0.42% within the week, and the price fell by 0.29% month-on-month and 7.26% year-on-year. The price of raw material corn has risen, and the cost of grain used by enterprises has increased, which has provided support for the price. Due to the increase in equipment maintenance in some areas, the situation of spot loading has emerged, and the supply is tight, but the trend of supply exceeding demand has continued, the transaction volume is flat, and the overall price of the domestic ethanol market has fluctuated in a narrow range.
On the cost side, the current available spot inventory is low, breeding profits are increasing, supply is tightening, and the domestic corn market is generally strong. Ethanol costs are affected by favorable factors.
On the supply side, the operating rates of production enterprises in various regions vary greatly; the operating rate in East China is less than 40%; the operating rate in Northeast China is about 80%; the operating rate in South China and Southwest China is about 20%. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan Factory was shut down for maintenance in mid-June, Guangxi Jinyuan was shut down on June 12, Jilin Fuel Ethanol was shut down for maintenance in early July, Wanli Runda was shut down for maintenance in mid-July, and Guotou Yushu Factory was shut down for maintenance in mid-to-late July. The supply side of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side, it is the off-season for liquor purchases, and demand is mainly weak; the downstream operation of ethyl acetate has increased slightly, and there is an expectation of centralized purchase by ethyl acetate enterprises after the Dragon Boat Festival; the impact of the compliance policy of ethanol gasoline local refineries has gradually weakened, and large purchasing factories have resumed purchasing operations. In addition, the use rate of car air conditioners will increase from June, and gasoline demand will rebound. Short-term ethanol demand is affected by favorable factors.
For the future market forecast, the cost side and the supply side are currently supported by favorable factors, and liquor and chemical procurement are not good. Supply and demand game. It is expected that the domestic ethanol market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.
Post time: Jun-17-2024