In late July, the acetone market started to fall sharply. According to analysis, the national acetone market fell slightly in the middle and early July, and the actual price did not change much. As the settlement date approached, acetone started to fall sharply. In the last week alone, the price fell by 8.26%. The national acetone trend and the acetone trend in East China in July are as follows:
From the supply side, the operating rate of domestic phenol ketone units is around 70%. On July 22, the port inventory of acetone in Jiangyin, China was 26,500 tons, of which Huaxi had 24,000 tons and Hengyang had 2,500 tons. From the international perspective, the Middle East units have returned to normal, and Saudi Arabian goods will also arrive in China in August. In the future, the import supply is expected to increase.
Domestic plant situation: In July, Wanhua Chemical’s 650,000 tons/year phenol ketone unit entered the shutdown and technical transformation state in mid-July. After the technical transformation, the phenol ketone production capacity will reach 780,000 tons/year; Shanghai Xisa’s 560,000 tons/year phenol ketone unit was shut down for maintenance on July 1 and resumed on July 8; Sinopec Mitsui’s 400,000 tons/year phenol ketone unit was shut down for maintenance from April 23 to July 7. In addition, some units have been in a shutdown state in the short term: Yanshan Petrochemical’s 100,000 tons/year phenol ketone unit in the East District was shut down on November 22, 2023 and has not yet started; Jilin Petrochemical’s 150,000 tons/year phenol ketone unit has been shut down for maintenance since March 4, and is expected to be about a year.
From the demand side, the operating rates of the two top downstream industries have declined, with the operating rate of bisphenol A at 60% and the operating rate of acetone cyanohydrin MMA at 50%. The overall operating rates of downstream bisphenol A and MMA are stable, the export orders for isopropanol are limited, and the domestic plants remain at around 50%. With the concentrated release of 50,000 tons of new production capacity by Anhui Zhonghuifa, the operating rate of the MIBK industry has increased. Although the production capacity has increased, its contribution to the demand for acetone is limited.
From the cost perspective, pure benzene continued to operate at a high level before the beginning of July. Because of the high price of pure benzene, phenol-ketone enterprises continued to be in a loss-making state. From mid-to-late July, pure benzene and acetone fell significantly, while phenol was in a strong position.
After the acetone market fell widely, the end of the month came, and the contracts were digested. The acetone market gradually bottomed out, and traders’ intention to make large concessions for shipments weakened. It is expected that the market will enter a period of shock consolidation at the end of the month, and the focus will be on the rhythm of replenishment of terminal factories.
Post time: Jul-29-2024